Executive summary
E-commerce is predicted to grow in both Europe and further afield. Mobile and social commerce are forecast to drive growth as consumer behaviours evolve.
The Asia market has an upbeat economic outlook in 2023. E-commerce in the region is forecast to grow faster than GPD, and many consumers are buying cross-border.
Sustainability is a key opportunity for adding value. Business could capitalise by looking for ways to help consumers live more sustainably and more affordably.
Economic headwinds and the rising cost of living could impact many businesses and consumers next year, but there are still some interesting areas for ambitious, growthseeking businesses to explore.
We’ve picked out three areas that could be of interest.
1
E-commerce could keep growing – and evolving
Growth forecasts for online sales are still buoyant. Europe-wide, revenue is predicted to reach almost $940bn in 2023, up from $828bn in 2022.1 It’s a similar story in the U.S., where sales are predicted to grow 10% per year over the next five years.2
This alone signals a growing opportunity for businesses selling to consumers this way. But there could be even greater potential to explore with the evolution towards commerce via social channels and digital technologies such as voice assistants.3
According to research by Accenture, the social commerce market is set to grow at a compound annual rate (CAGR) of 26% until 2025. Already big business in China, social commerce allows retailers to create new shopping experiences and form strong connections with consumers.4 It also helps retailers reach consumers in developing economies, where people are more likely to have access to a smartphone with social apps than to a laptop.
The good news for SMBs? Retailing via social commerce is just as accessible for small or new businesses as it is for multi-national brands. According to Accenture, the “social commerce revolution” represents a shift of power from big businesses to small.4
The opportunity at a glance:
The predicted annual growth rate of e-commerce sales in the U.S., 2022-272
The predicted year-on-year increase in e-commerce revenue in Europe, 2022-231
The predicted annual growth rate of social commerce sales, 2021-20254
The predicted annual growth rate of e-commerce sales in the U.S., 2022-272
The predicted year-on-year increase in e-commerce revenue in Europe, 2022-231
The predicted annual growth rate of social commerce sales, 2021-20254
$1.2 trillion
The predicted size of the global social commerce market by 20254
2
Steady growth is expected in Asia
Developing economies in Asia are predicted to see healthy growth in 2022 and 2023, with predicted GDP growing at a faster rate than inflation in most markets. India’s economy is set to grow 8% in 2023, according to Asian Development Bank, while China will see 4.8% growth.5 The International Monetary Fund predicts a similar level of economic growth for the region.6 Meanwhile, Southeast Asia is set to expand by 5.2% in 2023, with Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia and Vietnam growing faster than the regional average.5
And the e-commerce market is tipped to grow faster still. In Southeast Asia, e-commerce sales are predicted to total $90bn in 2022 and surpass $100bn in 2023.7 In Indonesia alone, e-commerce is expected to reach $90bn by 2025 – up from $35bn in 2020.8 Similarly, India’s e-commerce market is set to grow by 18% each year by 2025.9 Even China, already the world’s dominant e-commerce market, is forecast to hit $3.1trn e-commerce sales in 2023, up from $2.8trn in 2022.10
This is good news for ambitious European businesses, as cross-border e-commerce in the region is also seeing continued growth and makes up a significant proportion of sales. In India, for example, almost three quarters of e-commerce spending is on cross-border purchases.11
The opportunity at a glance:
Cross-border sales’ share of global e-commerce in 202312
E-commerce growth in Philippines, 20227
E-commerce growth in India, 20227
E-commerce growth in Indonesia, 20227
Cross-border sales’ share of global e-commerce in 202312
E-commerce growth in Philippines, 20227
E-commerce growth in India, 20227
E-commerce growth in Indonesia, 20227
+$200bn
Value of global cross-border e-commerce growth in 202212
3
The appetite for products that help consumers make environmentally friendly lifestyle changes, such as repairable goods, looks strong
Sustainability remains a top concern for consumers
Despite a rising cost of living, attitudes towards sustainability have remained resilient. For instance, three-quarters of people globally say they want single-use plastics to be banned as soon as possible, while 82% say they favour products with less plastic packaging.13
An even greater percentage – 85% – say that businesses should be responsible for reducing and reusing plastic packaging.13
But the current cost of living pressures are also having an impact. A separate survey reveals that 67% of consumers say the high price of sustainable products significantly deters them from buying them. However, 24% have stopped purchasing (or purchased less) from a brand that isn’t doing enough to help the environment.14 Meanwhile, around two thirds of consumers say they intend to repair products rather than replace them.14
These figures indicate a potential opportunity to align with both consumers’ environmental goals and financial realities. The appetite for products that help consumers make environmentally friendly lifestyle changes, such as repairable goods, looks strong14, and businesses that can help consumers to lead more sustainable lives – especially where that intersects with a cost saving – could be well placed to succeed in 2023.
The opportunity at a glance:
Proportion of consumers who have reduced purchases from a brand that isn’t doing enough for the environment14
Proportion of consumers who want to see single-use plastics banned as soon as possible13
Proportion of consumers who say businesses should take responsibility for reducing and reusing plastic packaging13
Proportion of consumers who have reduced purchases from a brand that isn’t doing enough for the environment14
Proportion of consumers who want to see single-use plastics banned as soon as possible13
Proportion of consumers who say businesses should take responsibility for reducing and reusing plastic packaging13
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Disclaimer: The information provided on this page does not constitute legal, tax, finance, accounting, or trade advice, but is designed to provide general information relating to business and commerce. The FedEx Small Business Hub content, information, and services are not a substitute for obtaining the advice of a competent professional, for example a licensed attorney, law firm, accountant, or financial adviser.
1. E-commerce: Europe | Statista
2. By 2027, U.S. online retail spending will reach $1.6million | Forrester, August, 2022
3. Future Consumer 2024 | WGSN, 2022
4. The future of shopping and social commerce | Accenture, Jan 2022
5. Developing Asia economies set to grow this year amid global uncertainty | Asian Development Bank, Apr 2022
6. Regional Economic Outlook: Asia | IMF, April 2022
7. Southeast Asia sees the fastest digital sales growth in the world | Insider Intelligence, Feb 2022
8. E-commerce in Indonesia | Statista, 2022
9. The Global Payments Report 2022 | Worldpay, March 2022
10. Retail e-commerce sales in China | Statista, July 2022
11. Insight into India – A guide for cross-border ecommerce brands | ESW, 2021
12. Cross-border ecommerce to account for 38% of all sales by 2023 | Internet Retailing, Apr 2022
13. 75% of people want single-use plastics banned, global survey finds | Reuters, Feb 2022
14. EY Future Consumer Index | EY, July 2022
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