Consumer spending is continuing to move online, with e-commerce sales forecast to grow this year and beyond. This is despite the challenging economic conditions that many consumers are currently facing and the pressures that retail sales overall continue to experience.

Last year, $5.7 trillion was forecast to have been spent online, accounting for 20% of all retail purchases. Estimate suggest that this figure will jump to over $8 trillion by 2026, with a 10% growth seen in both 2023 and 2024.¹

So what’s driving this continued surge in e-commerce? And what does your business need to do to tap into it? Here are three key factors to consider.

Think about re-evaluating your approach to non-domestic markets. With e-commerce sales rising around the world, there is a big opportunity to be found if you can reach consumers in key locations.

On a global basis, cross-border sales are expected to grow twice as fast as the overall e-commerce market in the period to 2030 – a 26%² surge vs 13%³ – to reach $5.6 trillion.

There’s also a specific opportunity for European businesses to reach customers in neighbouring countries. A third (32%) of consumers in the EU buy from sellers in other EU member states.⁴ That represents a solid base to work from, but the fact that 84% buy from domestic sellers also shows the potential to entice even more consumers to buy cross-border.

In addition, Europe itself is forecast to experience a higher compound annual growth rate in its e-commerce market than the global increase (13.9% a year to 2025, compared to 9.6%).⁵

Key takeaway: Key takeaway: The statistics show that cross-border e-commerce offers significant potential for businesses wishing to grow their online sales. But attempting to capitalise may mean adjusting your strategy, and it’s worth considering whether you are up to speed with practicalities such as shipping and returns, pricing, website localisation (including payments)⁶, and customs formalities.

There are a number of elements fuelling e-commerce growth, one of which is behavioural. Online shopping fulfils people’s demand for convenience – to shop whenever they want to and have those goods delivered to them next day. These factors are being seen around the world.⁷

Alongside this, greater smartphone penetration, especially in emerging markets, is also powering growth.

Mobile commerce is the dominant e-commerce sales channel in many emerging markets, largely because mobile networks are cheaper to develop than physical ones and using smartphones to surf the web is often more cost-effective for consumers than a desktop connection.⁸

So as the proliferation of smartphones grows, the likelihood is that e-commerce will grow too. And there is still considerable headroom. Smartphone adoption rates in emerging markets are still lower than developed economies, and forecasts suggest there will be almost 400m new subscribers to mobile services – most from Asia Pacific and Sub-Saharan Africa – by 2025.⁹

Key takeaway: To align with customers’ behavioural needs and the way they are shopping online, it’s important to prioritise their experience, deliver the convenience they are looking for, and have a strong mobile and social presence that aligns with how they are using the internet.

To take advantage of the potential for cross-border e-commerce growth, it’s a good idea to establish where the biggest opportunities are.

If you’re planning to go global, then look to see where the fastest growing e-commerce markets are and consider whether you should be investing in developing your sales there.

Unsurprisingly this list is peppered with emerging nations, with Brazil and Argentina in top position. But developed economies such as the U.S., Japan and Italy also feature.

For European businesses looking to stay closer to home, it’s worth noting that seven European markets are expected to account for 70% of Europe’s e-commerce sales by 2025. And there are fast-growing countries elsewhere in the region too, such as Romania and Hungary which are both expected to see their e-commerce markets surge by 15% a year to 2025.¹¹

Key takeaway: Do your research. Some markets are expanding at a faster rate than others – and may offer a greater potential – but wherever you go should be right fit for your business too. A key consideration here is fulfilment, where a good strategy can be essential.¹²

FedEx has a wide range of knowledge and expertise in cross-border shipping, and actively seeks feedback from customers to better understand their needs. We have recently been sharing our insights at The Delivery Conference in London and E-commerce Berlin Expo. Learn more about our e-commerce shipping services to see how we could help your business expand to new international markets.